Far from the Russian bombardments on Ukraine, the fear of a popular uprising is gradually spreading to the intelligence services in Cameroon. Indeed, specialized agencies are concerned about the likely fallout from the Ukrainian crisis in Cameroon in a context of socio-political tensions. Indeed, information and analysis notes have been prepared for transmission to the Presidency of the Republic of Cameroon in order to warn of the security risks weighing on Cameroon. More particularly a popular uprising like what happened in February 2008.
At the heart of the concerns of intelligence agencies, the increase in the cost of wheat which will have an impact on the prices of basic necessities, namely; flour, rice, and others. An increase that will bring with it inflation, making people's lives even more difficult.
Indeed, the wheat sold in Cameroon, which is used to make a staple food like bread, is mainly imported from Russia (1st world producer) and Ukraine. Although it produces only 30 to 32 million tonnes of wheat per year, or 4% of world production, Ukraine exports more than 60% of the quantities produced on its soil. As a result, the country is the world's fourth largest wheat exporter. Last week, the costs of wheat, which have been increasing since the COVID 19 pandemic, experienced a new acceleration last week with the first attacks by Russia against Ukraine.
The Matif, which is the essential benchmark for the wheat market on the stock exchange, increased by 40 euros between Wednesday and last Thursday. The price of a sack of wheat rose to 390 dollars (217,800 FCFA) including 80 dollars of freight. For a total of 470 dollars or 258,000 CFA francs. Yet a year ago, prices already on the rise hovered around 165,000 CFA francs. With the war, ships can no longer go to Ukraine to load cargo. International sanctions reduce or prevent companies from doing business with Russia.
In this context, Cameroonian millers who for months have been warning the government about the risks of a wheat shortage are forced to increase prices to maintain their supplies. A solution envisaged on the side of Côte d'Ivoire. The imminent risk in Cameroon is a shortage of wheat. The stocks that currently remain can only last for a period of one and a half months.
Should this be a surprise for the Cameroonian government? No. Because, as early as October 2021, GICAM warned the Minister of Commerce, Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana about the chaotic situation in which Cameroonian wheat importers find themselves. But a few weeks before, IFACO, the main Swiss supplier of wheat to Cameroon, met Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana on September 14, 2021 to tell him about the state of the wheat market in the world and the problems facing  Cameroonian businessmen.
Unfortunately, no serious government action has been taken. At the risk of expecting chaos. Now it is the intelligence agencies that are stepping up to prevent a popular uprising.