They also warn that Ukraine’s defenses are struggling due to shortages in manpower and resources.
The report, published on Wednesday, reveals that Ukrainian officials and international experts anticipate that the war could enter a critical phase in the coming months. Both Ukraine and Russia are fighting to gain territorial advantage ahead of political shifts, including the upcoming inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
A significant development is unfolding in Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched an offensive in August, deploying some of their best-equipped units. However, Russian troops managed to repel the attack and are now pushing back, according to Moscow's reports. Despite this, Ukraine continues to reinforce its efforts in Kursk, even as its defenses in Donbass are reportedly “crumbling.”
Military analysts and officials suggest that manpower shortages are the key issue for Ukraine. Ukrainian troops, particularly in Donbass, are facing increased Russian attacks. A military commander interviewed by the Financial Times described the situation in Donetsk as dire, with Russian forces attacking from multiple directions. Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly ready to retreat, but have not yet received orders to do so.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted that the average age of Ukrainian soldiers in various brigades has risen to over 40. Reinforcements are not arriving in sufficient numbers to replace the losses, he added.
Recent reports suggest that Russian forces have made substantial progress in Donbass, capturing numerous villages and key towns, including the heavily fortified mining town of Ugledar. The Russian Defense Ministry claims that its forces have gained significant ground in the area.
To address the shortage of infantry, Ukraine has reportedly been sending air force pilots, engineers, medics, and surgeons to the front lines. Since the start of the conflict, over a million Ukrainians have been drafted, with an additional 160,000 expected to be mobilized in the next few months.
Meanwhile, Moscow has continued its criticism of the Ukrainian government, accusing it of sacrificing its citizens to serve the interests of its Western allies. Russia has also described the conflict as a U.S.-initiated proxy war, with the implication that Washington is determined to continue the fight "to the last Ukrainian."
This situation paints a grim picture of the ongoing conflict, with both sides preparing for an intensifying battle as the winter months approach.