The thesis of Frank Biya succeeding his father as president

 "WHY THE FRANCK BIYA EQUATION IS DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE''

Franck Biya as a candidate to replace his father? The idea has been gaining ground for more than a year within the seraglio. Moreover, we have recently seen several movements emerge in this direction. If there was no such alternative envisaged within the seraglio, they would have been banned.

1- THE MEN

The conquest of power in the 21st century is like war. You need men. Individuals at the heart of the state apparatus. In decision-making positions who can decide to put themselves at your service given their background. However, from this point of view, beyond his small clique of friends and a small "regional network", Franck does not really have any men known at the heart of the state who could at any given moment manoeuvre in his favour.

For in a democratic configuration, one must take control of the party, have allies in the administration and the defence and security forces. Those who succeeded their father elsewhere first made their mark in the administration and, mind you, they almost all passed through the Ministry of Defence where they were part of the closed circle of the 'president's generals'. This allowed them to control the army with their loyal followers.

2 - THE NETWORKS

The absence of experience in the functions of the state has as a consequence the weakness of its network. The seizure of power requires a network of plural actors belonging to multiple ethnic, religious and spiritual obediences that contribute to creating a dynamic. The transfer of networks is not always obvious unless they have first been cultivated. This means that Franck Biya's lack of experience in politics and administration is a handicap for him in the transfer of his father's networks.

3- HIS DAD

This is certainly his main opponent. Paul Biya lives only for power and has never envisaged another life outside Etoudi. But on top of that, he is marked by an egoism that has prevented him from preparing his son for the presidential office. Perhaps because he did not want to? This is a possibility. This lack of preparation is undoubtedly a disabling factor for Franck Biya. The one his father seems to have given everything is the current Secretary General of the Presidency of the Republic, Minister of the Sky, Earth and Seas, the man with the punk, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh.

4- THE ARMY

The military seems to have returned to the forefront of the political scene in Africa. It would therefore be naive to believe that in Cameroon some are not inhabited by this temptation. By nature, Paul Biya can go to bed one morning and not get up again. At that moment, it would be a cacophony given the architecture of the power vacancy. In case the army does not intervene, which is unlikely, it will not occur to anyone to go and look for Franck Biya who is not a member of the CPDM political bureau. Worse still, the military will certainly not go looking for an individual they have never seen.

In the end, Franck Biya as president is more of an illusion than a possibility. However, anything can still happen as long as Biya is in power. The first test will be the next cabinet reshuffle.

If Franck Biya enters the government, the signal will be clear to 60%. He intends to succeed his father. And at that moment it will be clear that Paul Biya will also be a presidential candidate in 2025. In the meantime, his son could join the CPDM political bureau.

The game is therefore difficult for him but playable. He should not be underestimated. In politics, a man is only politically dead when he is dead."