Politics

As Nigeria approaches its most divisive and closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999, its leaders are having to reassure voters that Africa's most populous nation will remain in one piece. The Feb. 14 vote pitting President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian popular in his southern oil-producing Niger Delta region and in the east, against former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim favoured in the north and religiously mixed southwest, is already proving violent, with the electorate in Africa's biggest economy more polarised than for decades. "Despite the much-vaunted fear that our nation may not survive the elections ... I remain optimistic that we have ... the maturity to rise above the challenges," Senate President David Mark told parliament last week.

"Our nation will not disintegrate after the elections." Ever since 1914, when Britain carved Nigeria out of a swathe of West Africa that was home to diverse peoples speaking more than 500 languages, it has been dogged by the question of how viable it is as a unified nation state. However, most analysts say that even if serious bloodshed follows the election, as many expect, the worst-case scenario of a break-up of a country of 180 million people remains unlikely. "Nigeria has an enormous capacity to absorb risk," the International Crisis Group's Africa director Comfort Ero said. "While there are significant concerns about the elections, we are not predicting break-up."

However, she added that the republic was "in deep trouble, probably more than at any time since the end of military rule ... or even the civil war." The last time a bit of Nigeria tried to secede, it triggered the 1960s Biafra civil war in which more than a million people died. After that it seemed Nigerians were better off together. But as the election cycle has hotted up, some have floated the idea of division, and Boko Haram insurgents controlling territory the size of Belgium in the northeast are waging an increasingly bloody campaign for a breakaway Islamic state. Separately, dozens of people die every month in ethnic violence in the Middle Belt, where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet across a patchwork of minority groups that are likely to be split between the two candidates.

"Nigeria is bursting at the seams with ethno-religious ... problems waiting to explode," columnist Bayo Oluwasanmi wrote in the African Herald Express, a local daily, last month. "Competition in the coming 2015 presidential election could break the already tattered ties that keep Nigeria whole." That is probably hyperbole but there are signs the elections could trigger violence that may not be as easy to quell as in 2011, when Buhari's loss to Jonathan triggered three days of riots in the north that killed 800 and displaced 65,000. Besides regional and ethnic differences, Buhari is also a protest vote for many who say Jonathan has failed to tackle insecurity and corruption, Nigerians' two biggest complaints, and who was seen as tough on both when he ruled in the 1980s.

The pair hugged as they signed a peace pact last week, but clashes between thugs from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Buhari's opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have marred campaign rallies, and the rhetoric remains poisonous and sometimes tinged with religion.
Last year the PDP accused the APC of a "devilish plot" to impose an "Islamic agenda" on Nigeria, a dangerous appeal to religious sentiment, while Jonathan has played up his Christian identity, forging ties with hardline evangelical pastors. PDP state governor Ibrahim Shema had to retract a speech in November in which he described APC supporters as "cockroaches" and urged the crowd to "crush them", a chilling echo of Hutu militia radio broadcasts during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. On the other side, APC governor Rotimi Amaechi said this month that if the poll was not fair, the opposition would set up a "parallel government", as happened after a disputed election in Ivory Coast in 2010.

"If they deny Buhari victory, it could mean civil war because both sides are so dug in," prominent northern opposition politician Mohammed Junaidu told Reuters. The 2010 Ivory Coast election did spark a civil war but the country was already militarily divided, which Nigeria is not. In Kenya in 2007, a disputed election triggered three weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed 1,200, a toll that would be far higher in Nigeria where there are many more people and weapons. Ultimately what makes these polls so dicey is that they are a genuine contest, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. By running in 2011 Jonathan broke an agreement with northern elites, in their minds at least, that it was the north's 'turn' to field a president. Now such regional deals are in tatters. "In the past there has been a kind of consensus among the people who run Nigeria ... Elections at the presidential level were largely predetermined," Campbell said. "What we are talking about now are real elections, with a polarised electorate."

(Reuters)

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Ngwa Bertrand

23.Jan.2015

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As Nigeria approaches its most divisive and closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999, its leaders are having to reassure voters that Africa's most populous nation will remain in one piece. The Feb. 14 vote pitting President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian popular in his southern oil-producing Niger Delta region and in the east, against former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim favoured in the north and religiously mixed southwest, is already proving violent, with the electorate in Africa's biggest economy more polarised than for decades. "Despite the much-vaunted fear that our nation may not survive the elections ... I remain optimistic that we have ... the maturity to rise above the challenges," Senate President David Mark told parliament last week.

"Our nation will not disintegrate after the elections." Ever since 1914, when Britain carved Nigeria out of a swathe of West Africa that was home to diverse peoples speaking more than 500 languages, it has been dogged by the question of how viable it is as a unified nation state. However, most analysts say that even if serious bloodshed follows the election, as many expect, the worst-case scenario of a break-up of a country of 180 million people remains unlikely. "Nigeria has an enormous capacity to absorb risk," the International Crisis Group's Africa director Comfort Ero said. "While there are significant concerns about the elections, we are not predicting break-up."

However, she added that the republic was "in deep trouble, probably more than at any time since the end of military rule ... or even the civil war." The last time a bit of Nigeria tried to secede, it triggered the 1960s Biafra civil war in which more than a million people died. After that it seemed Nigerians were better off together. But as the election cycle has hotted up, some have floated the idea of division, and Boko Haram insurgents controlling territory the size of Belgium in the northeast are waging an increasingly bloody campaign for a breakaway Islamic state. Separately, dozens of people die every month in ethnic violence in the Middle Belt, where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet across a patchwork of minority groups that are likely to be split between the two candidates.

"Nigeria is bursting at the seams with ethno-religious ... problems waiting to explode," columnist Bayo Oluwasanmi wrote in the African Herald Express, a local daily, last month. "Competition in the coming 2015 presidential election could break the already tattered ties that keep Nigeria whole." That is probably hyperbole but there are signs the elections could trigger violence that may not be as easy to quell as in 2011, when Buhari's loss to Jonathan triggered three days of riots in the north that killed 800 and displaced 65,000. Besides regional and ethnic differences, Buhari is also a protest vote for many who say Jonathan has failed to tackle insecurity and corruption, Nigerians' two biggest complaints, and who was seen as tough on both when he ruled in the 1980s.

The pair hugged as they signed a peace pact last week, but clashes between thugs from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Buhari's opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have marred campaign rallies, and the rhetoric remains poisonous and sometimes tinged with religion.
Last year the PDP accused the APC of a "devilish plot" to impose an "Islamic agenda" on Nigeria, a dangerous appeal to religious sentiment, while Jonathan has played up his Christian identity, forging ties with hardline evangelical pastors. PDP state governor Ibrahim Shema had to retract a speech in November in which he described APC supporters as "cockroaches" and urged the crowd to "crush them", a chilling echo of Hutu militia radio broadcasts during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. On the other side, APC governor Rotimi Amaechi said this month that if the poll was not fair, the opposition would set up a "parallel government", as happened after a disputed election in Ivory Coast in 2010.

"If they deny Buhari victory, it could mean civil war because both sides are so dug in," prominent northern opposition politician Mohammed Junaidu told Reuters. The 2010 Ivory Coast election did spark a civil war but the country was already militarily divided, which Nigeria is not. In Kenya in 2007, a disputed election triggered three weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed 1,200, a toll that would be far higher in Nigeria where there are many more people and weapons. Ultimately what makes these polls so dicey is that they are a genuine contest, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. By running in 2011 Jonathan broke an agreement with northern elites, in their minds at least, that it was the north's 'turn' to field a president. Now such regional deals are in tatters. "In the past there has been a kind of consensus among the people who run Nigeria ... Elections at the presidential level were largely predetermined," Campbell said. "What we are talking about now are real elections, with a polarised electorate."

(Reuters)

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Ngwa Bertrand

23.Jan.2015

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As Nigeria approaches its most divisive and closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999, its leaders are having to reassure voters that Africa's most populous nation will remain in one piece. The Feb. 14 vote pitting President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian popular in his southern oil-producing Niger Delta region and in the east, against former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim favoured in the north and religiously mixed southwest, is already proving violent, with the electorate in Africa's biggest economy more polarised than for decades. "Despite the much-vaunted fear that our nation may not survive the elections ... I remain optimistic that we have ... the maturity to rise above the challenges," Senate President David Mark told parliament last week.

"Our nation will not disintegrate after the elections." Ever since 1914, when Britain carved Nigeria out of a swathe of West Africa that was home to diverse peoples speaking more than 500 languages, it has been dogged by the question of how viable it is as a unified nation state. However, most analysts say that even if serious bloodshed follows the election, as many expect, the worst-case scenario of a break-up of a country of 180 million people remains unlikely. "Nigeria has an enormous capacity to absorb risk," the International Crisis Group's Africa director Comfort Ero said. "While there are significant concerns about the elections, we are not predicting break-up."

However, she added that the republic was "in deep trouble, probably more than at any time since the end of military rule ... or even the civil war." The last time a bit of Nigeria tried to secede, it triggered the 1960s Biafra civil war in which more than a million people died. After that it seemed Nigerians were better off together. But as the election cycle has hotted up, some have floated the idea of division, and Boko Haram insurgents controlling territory the size of Belgium in the northeast are waging an increasingly bloody campaign for a breakaway Islamic state. Separately, dozens of people die every month in ethnic violence in the Middle Belt, where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet across a patchwork of minority groups that are likely to be split between the two candidates.

"Nigeria is bursting at the seams with ethno-religious ... problems waiting to explode," columnist Bayo Oluwasanmi wrote in the African Herald Express, a local daily, last month. "Competition in the coming 2015 presidential election could break the already tattered ties that keep Nigeria whole." That is probably hyperbole but there are signs the elections could trigger violence that may not be as easy to quell as in 2011, when Buhari's loss to Jonathan triggered three days of riots in the north that killed 800 and displaced 65,000. Besides regional and ethnic differences, Buhari is also a protest vote for many who say Jonathan has failed to tackle insecurity and corruption, Nigerians' two biggest complaints, and who was seen as tough on both when he ruled in the 1980s.

The pair hugged as they signed a peace pact last week, but clashes between thugs from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Buhari's opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have marred campaign rallies, and the rhetoric remains poisonous and sometimes tinged with religion.
Last year the PDP accused the APC of a "devilish plot" to impose an "Islamic agenda" on Nigeria, a dangerous appeal to religious sentiment, while Jonathan has played up his Christian identity, forging ties with hardline evangelical pastors. PDP state governor Ibrahim Shema had to retract a speech in November in which he described APC supporters as "cockroaches" and urged the crowd to "crush them", a chilling echo of Hutu militia radio broadcasts during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. On the other side, APC governor Rotimi Amaechi said this month that if the poll was not fair, the opposition would set up a "parallel government", as happened after a disputed election in Ivory Coast in 2010.

"If they deny Buhari victory, it could mean civil war because both sides are so dug in," prominent northern opposition politician Mohammed Junaidu told Reuters. The 2010 Ivory Coast election did spark a civil war but the country was already militarily divided, which Nigeria is not. In Kenya in 2007, a disputed election triggered three weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed 1,200, a toll that would be far higher in Nigeria where there are many more people and weapons. Ultimately what makes these polls so dicey is that they are a genuine contest, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. By running in 2011 Jonathan broke an agreement with northern elites, in their minds at least, that it was the north's 'turn' to field a president. Now such regional deals are in tatters. "In the past there has been a kind of consensus among the people who run Nigeria ... Elections at the presidential level were largely predetermined," Campbell said. "What we are talking about now are real elections, with a polarised electorate."

(Reuters)

Details

Ngwa Bertrand

23.Jan.2015

Hits: 1827

As Nigeria approaches its most divisive and closely fought election since the end of military rule in 1999, its leaders are having to reassure voters that Africa's most populous nation will remain in one piece. The Feb. 14 vote pitting President Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian popular in his southern oil-producing Niger Delta region and in the east, against former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim favoured in the north and religiously mixed southwest, is already proving violent, with the electorate in Africa's biggest economy more polarised than for decades. "Despite the much-vaunted fear that our nation may not survive the elections ... I remain optimistic that we have ... the maturity to rise above the challenges," Senate President David Mark told parliament last week.

"Our nation will not disintegrate after the elections." Ever since 1914, when Britain carved Nigeria out of a swathe of West Africa that was home to diverse peoples speaking more than 500 languages, it has been dogged by the question of how viable it is as a unified nation state. However, most analysts say that even if serious bloodshed follows the election, as many expect, the worst-case scenario of a break-up of a country of 180 million people remains unlikely. "Nigeria has an enormous capacity to absorb risk," the International Crisis Group's Africa director Comfort Ero said. "While there are significant concerns about the elections, we are not predicting break-up."

However, she added that the republic was "in deep trouble, probably more than at any time since the end of military rule ... or even the civil war." The last time a bit of Nigeria tried to secede, it triggered the 1960s Biafra civil war in which more than a million people died. After that it seemed Nigerians were better off together. But as the election cycle has hotted up, some have floated the idea of division, and Boko Haram insurgents controlling territory the size of Belgium in the northeast are waging an increasingly bloody campaign for a breakaway Islamic state. Separately, dozens of people die every month in ethnic violence in the Middle Belt, where the largely Christian south and mostly Muslim north meet across a patchwork of minority groups that are likely to be split between the two candidates.

"Nigeria is bursting at the seams with ethno-religious ... problems waiting to explode," columnist Bayo Oluwasanmi wrote in the African Herald Express, a local daily, last month. "Competition in the coming 2015 presidential election could break the already tattered ties that keep Nigeria whole." That is probably hyperbole but there are signs the elections could trigger violence that may not be as easy to quell as in 2011, when Buhari's loss to Jonathan triggered three days of riots in the north that killed 800 and displaced 65,000. Besides regional and ethnic differences, Buhari is also a protest vote for many who say Jonathan has failed to tackle insecurity and corruption, Nigerians' two biggest complaints, and who was seen as tough on both when he ruled in the 1980s.

The pair hugged as they signed a peace pact last week, but clashes between thugs from the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Buhari's opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) have marred campaign rallies, and the rhetoric remains poisonous and sometimes tinged with religion.
Last year the PDP accused the APC of a "devilish plot" to impose an "Islamic agenda" on Nigeria, a dangerous appeal to religious sentiment, while Jonathan has played up his Christian identity, forging ties with hardline evangelical pastors. PDP state governor Ibrahim Shema had to retract a speech in November in which he described APC supporters as "cockroaches" and urged the crowd to "crush them", a chilling echo of Hutu militia radio broadcasts during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. On the other side, APC governor Rotimi Amaechi said this month that if the poll was not fair, the opposition would set up a "parallel government", as happened after a disputed election in Ivory Coast in 2010.

"If they deny Buhari victory, it could mean civil war because both sides are so dug in," prominent northern opposition politician Mohammed Junaidu told Reuters. The 2010 Ivory Coast election did spark a civil war but the country was already militarily divided, which Nigeria is not. In Kenya in 2007, a disputed election triggered three weeks of ethnic bloodshed that killed 1,200, a toll that would be far higher in Nigeria where there are many more people and weapons. Ultimately what makes these polls so dicey is that they are a genuine contest, said John Campbell, a former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. By running in 2011 Jonathan broke an agreement with northern elites, in their minds at least, that it was the north's 'turn' to field a president. Now such regional deals are in tatters. "In the past there has been a kind of consensus among the people who run Nigeria ... Elections at the presidential level were largely predetermined," Campbell said. "What we are talking about now are real elections, with a polarised electorate."

(Reuters)

Details

Ngwa Bertrand

23.Jan.2015

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Five members of the Nigerian Islamic sect Boko Haram were arrested on Tuesday, January 20 in Garoua, in the North region of Cameroon. The secret service of the Rapid Intervention Battalion that has even since been policing the North region seized five members of the Boko Haram sect in Garoua, the capital of the North region.

Cameroon Concord gathered that the five had entered Garoua using a vehicle driven by a Chadian national in the district of Demsa. They reportedly spent some time in Bolky-a small locality not far from Garoua.  Cameroon military sources say they moved to Garoua pretending to be businessmen but were however identified by plain cloth policemen as members of Boko Haram who participated in the attacks on Kolofata.

The five Boko Haram members were arrested and Cameroon Concord got intelligence at the time of writing this report that the 5 have helped the Demsa gendarmerie with information that has led to the arrest of  Awalo Mohamed Moussa, Hassanou, Dogo and Balla Garga who were secretly hiding at Bamanga village. The five have confessed to the Cameroon Gendarmerie their active involvement in the attacks on Kolofata in the Far North and Mubi in Nigeria. This recent action has raised the tally to 17 Boko Haram fighters currently in Cameroon military drag net in the North region.

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Ngwa Bertrand

23.Jan.2015

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The Ghanaian Interior Ministry has said that the country is ready to combat any surprise attack by the Nigerian militant group, Boko Haram in any part of the country. Independent security experts have rumored that some Boko Haram fighters might have been on Ghana’s soil this month. To add to this, the French embassy was said to be on high terror alert on Tuesday following deadly protests in Niger over new cartoons published by the French satirical magazine-Charlie Hebdo. It is unclear whether the French intelligence has something to do with eminent Boko Haram attack in Ghana.

Speaking on local radio-Adom Fm in Accra on Wednesday, Ghana’s Interior Minister, Mark Woyongo said the security services are working hard to block Boko Haram both in weapons and any illicit financial transactions that might benefit the group. The UK and the US have already blocked any financial transactions by Boko Haram with their financial institutions. Mr. Woyongo said a lot of counter-terrorism measures have been put in place, urging citizens to be security conscious and report any suspicious persons or movement to the Police without any delay.

"We need to prepare for a bad day, we are not leaving anything to chance and it’s not as if we are taking things for granted, we are appealing to all citizens to help prevent these terrorists from entering the country’’, he said. Earlier this month, Police in the Eastern Region of Ghana arrested some 12 young men who were alleged to have formed a group calling it Boko Haram to terrorize residents in the area. They have since been put before court.

In the last regional block meeting held in Ghana, leaders in the West African sub-region were worried about the spreading of the activities of Boko Haram. Boko Haram is currently causing havoc in Cameroon but the country’s security forces are not giving them a breathing space. The regional block therefore agreed unanimously this week to seek the approval of the African Union to create a multi-national force to fight the militants. Chad and Cameroon have already taken a lead role.

Boko Haram sparked an international outrage last year when it abducted more than 200 schoolgirls in the town of Chibok in Borno State. The group has killed thousands of people and displaced many in the mainly north of Nigeria. The Nigerian military has woefully failed to defend civilians against the militants’ frequent attacks. It has therefore allowed Boko Haram to consolidate its territorial annexation for an Islamic Caliphate State.

The United States intelligence report on Boko Haram in May 2014 said there is no indication of the group in Ghana but did warned the security service not to be complacent. Boko Haram six-year insurgency has intensified this year. The New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) has said Boko Haram killed more than 4,000 civilians last year. Boko Haram which means "Western education is forbidden" sees schools and colleges as a symbol of Western culture. It has vowed to eradicate such institutions and create an Islamic state in the north of the country.

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Ngwa Bertrand

22.Jan.2015

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