Large decrease in visitors to Papal events with Pope Francis

Jubilee numbers low so far as attendance numbers continue to fall at public events with Pope Francis in Rome, terrorism and a poor economy are cited as significant factors

The inauguration of the Jubilee of Mercy, the opening of the Holy Door, by this most popular of pontiffs was expected to draw masses of believers to Rome in unprecedented numbers. But the first tally has been disappointing: St Peter's Square was far from overflowing, the airport was almost deserted, there were no traffic problems at all, and the most favorable estimates put attendance at just 50,000.

The official numbers for the beginning of the Jubilee showed a 30% decrease in attendance with respect to the year before: 324,000 people, down from 461,000 in December 2014 when there was no Jubilee. The decline was even more marked over the twelve month span of 2015, which counted 3,210,860 faithful in attendance at the meetings with the Pope (general audiences, special audiences, Vatican liturgical celebrations, the Angelus and Regina Coeli prayers), amounting to 45% fewer than the 5,916,800 of 2014 and less than half the 6,623,900 of Francis first nine months as pontiff in 2013. The biggest disparity was at the Angelus and Regina Coeli prayers, with 1.6 million in attendance in 2015, compared to over 3 million the previous year.

Without the Jubilee the numbers would have been even smaller. The Pope's December agenda was thick with 23 appointments, spanning 19 days, 15 of which came after the opening of the Holy Door. The month’s ceremonies drew 108,000 people, as opposed to 21,000 the year before. The Sunday of the Jubilee of the Family drew another 50,000; the Wednesday general audiences increased their attendance from 32,000 to 44,000, while the special audiences grew from 18,500 to 22,000. However, participation in the Angelus plummeted from 390,000 to 150,000.

The decline has been particularly stark in the general audiences, admission to which requires a ticket. On August 26th, for Pope Francis's hundredth general audience, the Prefecture for the Papal Household, which is in charge of recording and issuing the tickets (all free), released the official attendance data up to then, which showed that these meetings had drawn a total of 3,147,600 people. Divided by year the numbers give steeply decreasing averages, with each year's general audiences having halved the attendance of the year before: in 2013 the papal audiences were attended on average by 51,617 people; in 2014 the average had been 27,883 people and in 2015 it had come to just 14,818.

Since drawing crowds, of course, does not necessarily coincide with leading people to Christ, it is interesting to see whether the statistics suggest that people are going back to church. The official government statistics (ISTAT) for Italy say that, at least for this country, it is not happening. The last available data refer to the end of 2014 and, based on a sample of 24,000 families, for a total of about 54,000 individuals, spread out over 850 towns, they show that the percentage of people over the age of six who go to a place of worship at least once a week has not only not gone up with Pope Francis but has actually decreasesd to the minimum rate of 28.8%. In other words, only little more than one person out of four now enters a Catholic church at least once a week.

Under the previous Pope, Benedict XVI, the rate of churchgoers averaged 32-33%, and never fell below the 30% mark. An overview of the papacy of Pope Benedict shows that his eight years as Supreme Pontiff drew some 20 million people to Rome. If one considers some of the negative stories and often harsh press that accompanied the papacy of Josef Ratzinger, it is significant that the number of faithful who flocked to see and listen to Benedict XVI were always well over 2 million, yearly, including in 2012, his final year, when the crowds numbered 2,351,200.